In February 2007, I said gold would hit 2K by the end of 2011, it reached USD 1921.00. When I said that, Gold was around 665.00 an ounce.
link
I have been saying since the start of 2015 that gold will hit at least 5000.00 in ten years - by the end of 2025. Some may say that is a long time, but for me a 300% return in ten years is very good.
There are many reasons why I believe it will reach at least 5K, however, I will state just one; as the US debt goes, so does gold.
I believe that the US debt will increase in current US fiat currency terms, therefore, IMO gold will increase, but if on the other hand the US debt stays the same or decreases then maybe gold will not hit 5K. I am betting on the former.
NOTE: Please note that this is not investment advice but just my personal opinion and yes I do invest in Gold.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Things will get uglier
It will get uglier for sure; that is the world economy, of course. The first leg of this greater depression started in 2008 and the consequences was dire, however, there has been the appearance of a recovery, which, indeed, is more of an illusion. The real numbers are no better than they were in 2008, even though the nominal numbers may reflect differently. There will be a second leg which will be uglier, because it is common sense that what took 28 years to build up cannot be undone in two or five years. If one figures that this depression started in 2008, then it is only 3 years old, therefore it still has a long time to go yet; when it ends still cannot be accurately forecasted except for the fact that this decade will be a lost decade for a large amount of people in the USA and some other parts of the world
The second leg could start either in the Q3 2011 or Q1 2012, or it can happen anytime within the next 5 years, however, the balance of the world economy right now is very precarious with a 54 percent possibility that things will get worse as of today. If there is one more disaster the size of what took place in Japan recently, then that will trigger it in a hurry. However, if there is no disaster of that magnitude but there are smaller ones coupled with any downturn of European economies on the brink along with any of China, India, Russia or Brazil that that will send the world economy over the edge.
The Global economic health Index. The higher the Index the worse the Global economy:
My advice, even more so now is, live below your means and hang tight, be good to your fellow living beings. For those with the courage, intelligence and knowledge there will still be money to be made in the stock market but wall street is not main street so look out for people and fight against any forms of socialism or communism.
There may be some politicians who will try to socialize the economy, but most of them will more than ever be dishing out more corporate welfare, this should make me happy because I am an investor, however, that leaves the majority footing the bill which is highly unethical. We must guard against politicians and special interest groups using this as an opportunity to eradicate decades of freedom that many fought for. Also, we must not let trade unions and social groups drive the USA or Canada into communist or socialist states. That being said we need both sides, the extreme capitalists and the diehard socialists to ensure that we meet somewhere in the middle.
Even though capitalism is not perfect it is still the best system as long as it has not gone mad and worth defending even though right now it looks like it may have failed because of a few mad men.
The second leg could start either in the Q3 2011 or Q1 2012, or it can happen anytime within the next 5 years, however, the balance of the world economy right now is very precarious with a 54 percent possibility that things will get worse as of today. If there is one more disaster the size of what took place in Japan recently, then that will trigger it in a hurry. However, if there is no disaster of that magnitude but there are smaller ones coupled with any downturn of European economies on the brink along with any of China, India, Russia or Brazil that that will send the world economy over the edge.
The Global economic health Index. The higher the Index the worse the Global economy:
My advice, even more so now is, live below your means and hang tight, be good to your fellow living beings. For those with the courage, intelligence and knowledge there will still be money to be made in the stock market but wall street is not main street so look out for people and fight against any forms of socialism or communism.
There may be some politicians who will try to socialize the economy, but most of them will more than ever be dishing out more corporate welfare, this should make me happy because I am an investor, however, that leaves the majority footing the bill which is highly unethical. We must guard against politicians and special interest groups using this as an opportunity to eradicate decades of freedom that many fought for. Also, we must not let trade unions and social groups drive the USA or Canada into communist or socialist states. That being said we need both sides, the extreme capitalists and the diehard socialists to ensure that we meet somewhere in the middle.
Even though capitalism is not perfect it is still the best system as long as it has not gone mad and worth defending even though right now it looks like it may have failed because of a few mad men.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Market pullback
Well, the markets have pulled back and it may still have a bit more to go, but I personally am starting to buy back in slowly.
Here is my chart of where the market is currently:
Here is my chart of where the market is currently:
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Markets due for a pull back
The Stock market is due for a pullback. Looking at my chart below you can see that over a certain threshhold the market always pulls back. This current bull has been running for a while and will go through a correction of at least 7%.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
More Trouble Ahead
Some of us for years have be forecasting everything that has unfolded so far and a few of us have gone even further to say that we would enter what would come to be known as the greater depression. We are officially in the greater depression. The media and politicians may look for many reasons to say that the economy is getting better, they will manipulate the unemployment numbers, the housing and GDP numbers to make things look rosy, however, until manufacturing and R& D full time employment increases the recovery will be nothing but a figment of imagination. Service sector jobs will not make the economy grow over the long term.
There is a wave or ARM and Alt-A resets coming starting in June and lasting till 2012; I expect to see many more foreclosures. Currently the inventory of houses foreclosed and coming up for foreclosures will take banks about 9 yrs to clear up; based on the current numbers of sales vs foreclosures.
The numbers:
• 11 million home owners currently under water on their mortgages
• As of March, banks had 1.1 million foreclosed homes – up 20% from a year earlier
• Additional 4.8 million mortgage owners are 60 days behind in payments or in foreclosure process
The ARM, plus Alt-A resets combined with a possible increase in interest rates will lead to sure disaster. I do not see any real turn around in the economy till around 2015 earliest. As I have stated before it cannot take 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 yrs to undo 30 yrs of damage. Best case scenario is 8-10 yrs.
The economy will turn around for sure, but there has to be a true reset and the more the government interferes the longer the reset will take when instead the earlier would be the better. However, whatever the scenario, life in the US as we knew it has changed forever and will take many generations to return to that state, if ever.
There is a wave or ARM and Alt-A resets coming starting in June and lasting till 2012; I expect to see many more foreclosures. Currently the inventory of houses foreclosed and coming up for foreclosures will take banks about 9 yrs to clear up; based on the current numbers of sales vs foreclosures.
The numbers:
• 11 million home owners currently under water on their mortgages
• As of March, banks had 1.1 million foreclosed homes – up 20% from a year earlier
• Additional 4.8 million mortgage owners are 60 days behind in payments or in foreclosure process
The ARM, plus Alt-A resets combined with a possible increase in interest rates will lead to sure disaster. I do not see any real turn around in the economy till around 2015 earliest. As I have stated before it cannot take 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 yrs to undo 30 yrs of damage. Best case scenario is 8-10 yrs.
The economy will turn around for sure, but there has to be a true reset and the more the government interferes the longer the reset will take when instead the earlier would be the better. However, whatever the scenario, life in the US as we knew it has changed forever and will take many generations to return to that state, if ever.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Cuba is one messed up country
• Mortgage industry controlled by the government
• Financial industry controlled by the government
• Auto industry controlled by the government
• Healthcare industry about to be controlled by the government
Socialism and Communism never worked and never will, unless the intense passion for innovation is not important.
• Financial industry controlled by the government
• Auto industry controlled by the government
• Healthcare industry about to be controlled by the government
Socialism and Communism never worked and never will, unless the intense passion for innovation is not important.
Monday, December 28, 2009
My annual soapbox.
I am a vegetarian. I became one based on the unethical treatment of animals and it was my little way of saying that I will no longer support that part of the meat industry that ply its trade unethically. Also, currently, I have enough other choices that I do not need to eat meat, poultry or seafood.
My friends are pretty much all meat eaters but I believe that they are all ethical about it; in that they consume basically what they need and do not indulge in the pure gluttony that goes on in most of North America.
Why anyone would need to eat a 10 ounce stake, a rack of ribs, 25 wings, a whole lobster or veal (baby calf) is beyond me and just pure gluttony. There are many other examples. But the meat, poultry and seafood industry has only one interest and that is to make as much money as possible in any way possible, with absolutely no interest in ethics.
Ed, one of my friends, and I have discussed this very topic many times about the cruelty to animals and the pure gluttony of North Americans in general. We have also discussed what we believe is killing this planet and it is, simply put, over consumption.
People do not need to eat the above mentioned portions of food. People do not need to have a new cell phone every year people do not need to have a new laptop every year or two years. How many pairs of shoes do people need? These are just some examples.
Essentially, we need to live life and enjoy it, but with consideration for all other living things around us and the consequence of our actions on them. Therefore, as we indulge and live our lives from day to day, we should do things within reason, and realize that everything we consume requires energy to manufacture and grow and there is only so much energy on this planet. Also, the side effects of the process of growing and manufacturing can be very detrimental to this planet.
For example, much of the waste of the animals that we consume end up poisoning our water systems, and we kill over 50 billion animals per year to support our gluttony.
Happy New Year's everyone!
My friends are pretty much all meat eaters but I believe that they are all ethical about it; in that they consume basically what they need and do not indulge in the pure gluttony that goes on in most of North America.
Why anyone would need to eat a 10 ounce stake, a rack of ribs, 25 wings, a whole lobster or veal (baby calf) is beyond me and just pure gluttony. There are many other examples. But the meat, poultry and seafood industry has only one interest and that is to make as much money as possible in any way possible, with absolutely no interest in ethics.
Ed, one of my friends, and I have discussed this very topic many times about the cruelty to animals and the pure gluttony of North Americans in general. We have also discussed what we believe is killing this planet and it is, simply put, over consumption.
People do not need to eat the above mentioned portions of food. People do not need to have a new cell phone every year people do not need to have a new laptop every year or two years. How many pairs of shoes do people need? These are just some examples.
Essentially, we need to live life and enjoy it, but with consideration for all other living things around us and the consequence of our actions on them. Therefore, as we indulge and live our lives from day to day, we should do things within reason, and realize that everything we consume requires energy to manufacture and grow and there is only so much energy on this planet. Also, the side effects of the process of growing and manufacturing can be very detrimental to this planet.
For example, much of the waste of the animals that we consume end up poisoning our water systems, and we kill over 50 billion animals per year to support our gluttony.
Happy New Year's everyone!
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
The next decade
I have written many times over the years on my blog and various forums on where the US was headed. Some have been dire but all have been realized or are in the process of being realized. However, even though life has changed the world has not ended, in fact the world is not about to come to an end anytime soon. That being said the prospects for the next decade in the world does not look good.
The world is headed for a long depression, there is no doubt about it, as a matter of fact we are already in it. No country will be spared. The way we react to this as humans on this planet will say a lot about us.
Scenario one; for the most part, we are good to each other and share what we have with our “neighbors”. This would include countries helping countries and we get out of this in time with no major wars or chaos.
Scenario two would be that people and countries get so desperate that there is total chaos, stealing, killing for basic stuff, fire, riots, increased deaths through crime and through total neglect in society from health to infrastructure to car and home maintenance. Wars declared because countries will be trying to steal other countries resources with the official declaration of WWIII, before we get out of the depression.
We would all hope for scenario one but knowing common human behavior Scenario two is most likely. In that case, expect Russia, China and some Mid-eastern countries to be on one side, while the US, Europe and India will be on the other side. Where South America ends up will be interesting and I believe that there will be a major grab for control one way or the other of South American countries because it is resource rich. At the end of it, just like after WWII, expect a new world order with a redrawn world map either physically or ideologically. Us as individuals will need to take steps to minimize the adverse impact of scenario two.
It is very likely that there could be a bank holiday for some time where people would have no access whatsoever to their money or gold, or possibly even of the government taking or “borrowing” some of people’s wealth for “the cause”. My advice would be to keep some of your wealth out of the bank where you would have quick access to it. Expect runaway inflation and gold to hit at least 2k by end 2011. If we see hyperinflation expect, 5k gold and commodity price increases across the board.
Will it be scenario one or scenario two? I say scenario two but hope for scenario one. I have not been wrong on any of my forecasts so far but hope more than anyone that I am totally wrong on this one, but I do not live my life based on hope so I do whatever I can to make life bearable over the next decade. Yes the next decade will be very interesting.
The world is headed for a long depression, there is no doubt about it, as a matter of fact we are already in it. No country will be spared. The way we react to this as humans on this planet will say a lot about us.
Scenario one; for the most part, we are good to each other and share what we have with our “neighbors”. This would include countries helping countries and we get out of this in time with no major wars or chaos.
Scenario two would be that people and countries get so desperate that there is total chaos, stealing, killing for basic stuff, fire, riots, increased deaths through crime and through total neglect in society from health to infrastructure to car and home maintenance. Wars declared because countries will be trying to steal other countries resources with the official declaration of WWIII, before we get out of the depression.
We would all hope for scenario one but knowing common human behavior Scenario two is most likely. In that case, expect Russia, China and some Mid-eastern countries to be on one side, while the US, Europe and India will be on the other side. Where South America ends up will be interesting and I believe that there will be a major grab for control one way or the other of South American countries because it is resource rich. At the end of it, just like after WWII, expect a new world order with a redrawn world map either physically or ideologically. Us as individuals will need to take steps to minimize the adverse impact of scenario two.
It is very likely that there could be a bank holiday for some time where people would have no access whatsoever to their money or gold, or possibly even of the government taking or “borrowing” some of people’s wealth for “the cause”. My advice would be to keep some of your wealth out of the bank where you would have quick access to it. Expect runaway inflation and gold to hit at least 2k by end 2011. If we see hyperinflation expect, 5k gold and commodity price increases across the board.
Will it be scenario one or scenario two? I say scenario two but hope for scenario one. I have not been wrong on any of my forecasts so far but hope more than anyone that I am totally wrong on this one, but I do not live my life based on hope so I do whatever I can to make life bearable over the next decade. Yes the next decade will be very interesting.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
The US as we know it is dead
In an economy two sectors provide employment; private and government. When government grows it does so at the expense of the private sector. This is the case right now in the USA. This may be ok for a while but then where do the government get the revenue for its programs? It can do one of three things; increase taxes on the population, decrease the size of government or increase the money supply. The first one will lead to more hardship for the already overtaxed population. The second; well what are the odds government will get smaller with government being involved in banking, insurance sector, mortgages and now soon to be; healthcare. The third one; well that will lead also to increase taxation on the population via inflation
There is a real possibility the Government will increase taxes on the rich; this will not work. Increasing taxes on the rich may work for a short while, however, over the long term it will not. Eventually the rich will pack up and leave either physically or at least their business interest, taking even more jobs with them. The government will try to stop this by limiting the movement of wealth. They have already taken some drastic steps by imposing themselves on the Swiss government resulting in the loss of anonymity which is what made the Swiss banking system worked as well as it did. If anyone wants to start moving wealth out of the US they had better start doing so soon, because the US is becoming more and more of a communist state in the laws they are imposing; from security to finance people are losing their privacy and freedom.
There are a lot of changes to be made if the USA is to ever go back to what it used to be, I doubt whether we will see all of those changes. At least not over a short time
If anyone doubts that the US is getting more and more into financial trouble here is one last bit of information for you; current government spending as a share of GDP is around almost 40%. The last time it went over 40% was during the Great Depression.
I strongly believe hat the US is dead as we know it and will never go back to what it was during the last 30 years. Yes, like I have before, life as we know it in the US has changed forever.
There is a real possibility the Government will increase taxes on the rich; this will not work. Increasing taxes on the rich may work for a short while, however, over the long term it will not. Eventually the rich will pack up and leave either physically or at least their business interest, taking even more jobs with them. The government will try to stop this by limiting the movement of wealth. They have already taken some drastic steps by imposing themselves on the Swiss government resulting in the loss of anonymity which is what made the Swiss banking system worked as well as it did. If anyone wants to start moving wealth out of the US they had better start doing so soon, because the US is becoming more and more of a communist state in the laws they are imposing; from security to finance people are losing their privacy and freedom.
There are a lot of changes to be made if the USA is to ever go back to what it used to be, I doubt whether we will see all of those changes. At least not over a short time
If anyone doubts that the US is getting more and more into financial trouble here is one last bit of information for you; current government spending as a share of GDP is around almost 40%. The last time it went over 40% was during the Great Depression.
I strongly believe hat the US is dead as we know it and will never go back to what it was during the last 30 years. Yes, like I have before, life as we know it in the US has changed forever.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
The worst is yet to come
I have stated over time some things that have been proven correct. Here are some:
• The US is a fraud enterprise
• Real estate will drop at least 30%
• The Dow will drop at least 50%
• The USD will fall
• By the end of 2008 there will be tears on the streets
A couple still unfolding:
• Gold to hit 2k by the end of 2011
• We are heading into the greater depression
The fraud enterprise was proven to be true with the near collapse of the financial system. Unfortunately the fraud is still continuing. Large scale paper transactions add nothing of great tangible value to wider society and as long as it continues to go on unabated the free enterprise system will continue to be a fraud.
Real Estate has dropped more than 50% in some areas. Some think that real estate has recovered, however, I think this is delusional. There is a second and third wave coming, the commercial real estate defaults and the prime borrowers default. There will be no leveling off of the real estate market until around late 2011/2012.
The Dow did drop over 50% however I do not expect it go back down to that level but it would be better if it did. I expect it to trade within a range of 7k 11k for a while yet. However if it goes above 15k then heaven help us all!
The USD has fallen more then 50% vs CDN currency and has fallen very much vs all major currencies. This is the only way that the US can pay all of its foreign debt and meet all of its debt obligations. Expect the USD to continue to fall.
There was already tears on the streets in many US cities by the end 2008 and still continue to be the case in many major US cities, Detroit, LA, NY, Cleveland, to name a few. I expect this to get uglier as unemployment continues to rise.
Gold is today over 1K and I expect this to continue to increase in value. With all of the money being created in the US and worldwide, I expect gold to appreciate vs all currencies. The last time gold hit its high the ratio was 1:1 Gold vs the Dow. Take your pick either the Dow falls or gold increases or we have a combination and they meet somewhere in the middle. Even if the ratio is 2:1 for the Dow you can see the potential for gold to increase in value.
We are heading for a greater depression, when the combination of real unemployment and real inflation goes over 30 we have entered a depression. The combination of unemployment and under employment puts Real unemployment at about 15. Real inflation is currently close to double digits, I expect this to increase to at least 15%, hence the increase in gold price, and the Dow not falling back to its 2009 lows. If we ever hit hyper inflation then gold will hit some crazy highs and that would not be good for anyone of US.
It took us over 25 years to get to the peak of the economic and financial bubble and anyone who thinks it will unfold in 2 or 3 years need to think again.
At the end of the day, despite what the talking heads say, deflation is better than inflation. Inflation enables the ones in power to transfer wealth from the poor and working class to themselves as paper is worth less and less over time. In deflationary times paper is scarce and it is at least worth something more than in inflationary times.
I believe that the worst is not yet over, buckle up and make the moves that will let you go through this crisis with minimal impact, however, none of the poor, working or middle class will be spared, but, we can minimize the damage. Good luck!
• The US is a fraud enterprise
• Real estate will drop at least 30%
• The Dow will drop at least 50%
• The USD will fall
• By the end of 2008 there will be tears on the streets
A couple still unfolding:
• Gold to hit 2k by the end of 2011
• We are heading into the greater depression
The fraud enterprise was proven to be true with the near collapse of the financial system. Unfortunately the fraud is still continuing. Large scale paper transactions add nothing of great tangible value to wider society and as long as it continues to go on unabated the free enterprise system will continue to be a fraud.
Real Estate has dropped more than 50% in some areas. Some think that real estate has recovered, however, I think this is delusional. There is a second and third wave coming, the commercial real estate defaults and the prime borrowers default. There will be no leveling off of the real estate market until around late 2011/2012.
The Dow did drop over 50% however I do not expect it go back down to that level but it would be better if it did. I expect it to trade within a range of 7k 11k for a while yet. However if it goes above 15k then heaven help us all!
The USD has fallen more then 50% vs CDN currency and has fallen very much vs all major currencies. This is the only way that the US can pay all of its foreign debt and meet all of its debt obligations. Expect the USD to continue to fall.
There was already tears on the streets in many US cities by the end 2008 and still continue to be the case in many major US cities, Detroit, LA, NY, Cleveland, to name a few. I expect this to get uglier as unemployment continues to rise.
Gold is today over 1K and I expect this to continue to increase in value. With all of the money being created in the US and worldwide, I expect gold to appreciate vs all currencies. The last time gold hit its high the ratio was 1:1 Gold vs the Dow. Take your pick either the Dow falls or gold increases or we have a combination and they meet somewhere in the middle. Even if the ratio is 2:1 for the Dow you can see the potential for gold to increase in value.
We are heading for a greater depression, when the combination of real unemployment and real inflation goes over 30 we have entered a depression. The combination of unemployment and under employment puts Real unemployment at about 15. Real inflation is currently close to double digits, I expect this to increase to at least 15%, hence the increase in gold price, and the Dow not falling back to its 2009 lows. If we ever hit hyper inflation then gold will hit some crazy highs and that would not be good for anyone of US.
It took us over 25 years to get to the peak of the economic and financial bubble and anyone who thinks it will unfold in 2 or 3 years need to think again.
At the end of the day, despite what the talking heads say, deflation is better than inflation. Inflation enables the ones in power to transfer wealth from the poor and working class to themselves as paper is worth less and less over time. In deflationary times paper is scarce and it is at least worth something more than in inflationary times.
I believe that the worst is not yet over, buckle up and make the moves that will let you go through this crisis with minimal impact, however, none of the poor, working or middle class will be spared, but, we can minimize the damage. Good luck!
Friday, June 5, 2009
Markets will crash soon
The markets will crash soon, probably within the next month. We are still in a long term bear market and eventually the bear will take over again, likely before the end of June. The US is still in crisis with unemployment, debt, deficit, real estate and the falling dollar still major problems.
The problems will continue for years. I expect real estate to bottom somewhere in the second half of 2011. High unemployment will continue for years and inflation will be high. I expect the Dow will fluctuate between 7000 and 11000 for many years to come; at least 10 yrs. If it goes below its March 2009 lows or above 11000 during this period, heaven help us. The US is adding liquidity 3 times as fast as Japan and Japan has had almost 2 decades of a fairly flat stock market, the US should not be any different. If it is different then we are in even worse trouble.
Whilst travelling last Christmas, someone overseas said to me; “you know, a big scam brought us here and I believe it will take another big scam to get us out of it”. I hope he was right and I hope they are cooking up a good scam, because the one they are serving up right now isn’t working.
The problems will continue for years. I expect real estate to bottom somewhere in the second half of 2011. High unemployment will continue for years and inflation will be high. I expect the Dow will fluctuate between 7000 and 11000 for many years to come; at least 10 yrs. If it goes below its March 2009 lows or above 11000 during this period, heaven help us. The US is adding liquidity 3 times as fast as Japan and Japan has had almost 2 decades of a fairly flat stock market, the US should not be any different. If it is different then we are in even worse trouble.
Whilst travelling last Christmas, someone overseas said to me; “you know, a big scam brought us here and I believe it will take another big scam to get us out of it”. I hope he was right and I hope they are cooking up a good scam, because the one they are serving up right now isn’t working.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Convergence and divergence between Japan and the US
I have called for this crisis to take anywhere from 10 to 25 yrs before we see any turn around. I have called for RE to drop a lot and as much as 50% in some places, I have called for the Dow to fall 50%, among other forecasts that I have made in the past.
Now after looking at data from Japan I realize that things can get even worse. Here are some observations:
In Japan’s RE boom a piece of land about 3.41 square kilometers of land on which the Emperor's palace sits was worth all the land in California, no need to tell you what happened shortly after.
In its peak the Nikkei was over 38000, today it is under 8000
The down at its peak was over 14000, in this down turn it has gone as low as under 7200 (do you see what can possibly happen?)
Japan started out sourcing jobs to other pats of Asia.
The US has done the same
Japan lowered interest rates as much as they can to avoid their crisis but it did not work
The US is also doing this
Japan had a lost decade in the 90’s and a horrible one this decade also
Will the US suffer the same fate?
Japan had very little debt
The US has massive debt
Japan had a Trade Surplus
The US has a trade deficit
Japan created a lot of paper over a ten yr period
The US has created just as much in a third of the time
Japan was able to avoid a depression
Will the US be able to avoid a depression?
Well we are doing all of the same things the Japanese did but only much faster. Japan was able to avoid a depression because of a trade surplus and very little foreign debt compared to the US. Because of the trade deficit, overall debt and monetary inflation in the US, there is no way in the hell the US can avoid the Greater Depression. As a matter of fact it has already started.
The world is full of stupid people and every time I hear someone says “go out and spend” to get us out of this, I add one more idiot to the list. You cannot create more debt to get out of debt, you do not create long term solutions by going into debt, now sir! You solve financial problems by saving and paying off those debts. Saving instills confidence in individuals and countries. Saving provides capital for innovations. Debt only encourages leveraging that transfers wealth from the poor and working class to the power class and it props up the fractional reserve banking system that facilitates this transfer of wealth from the working class and poor to the power class.
What will save us and avoid a crisis of this magnitude in the future is saving and a gold backed currency, without these, life will be a living hell for the foreseeable future.
In closing I will restate another forecast I made many times; Gold will hit 2K by the end of 2011. And to that I will add Oil will go to 100 dollars a barrel within 3 years.
Now after looking at data from Japan I realize that things can get even worse. Here are some observations:
In Japan’s RE boom a piece of land about 3.41 square kilometers of land on which the Emperor's palace sits was worth all the land in California, no need to tell you what happened shortly after.
In its peak the Nikkei was over 38000, today it is under 8000
The down at its peak was over 14000, in this down turn it has gone as low as under 7200 (do you see what can possibly happen?)
Japan started out sourcing jobs to other pats of Asia.
The US has done the same
Japan lowered interest rates as much as they can to avoid their crisis but it did not work
The US is also doing this
Japan had a lost decade in the 90’s and a horrible one this decade also
Will the US suffer the same fate?
Japan had very little debt
The US has massive debt
Japan had a Trade Surplus
The US has a trade deficit
Japan created a lot of paper over a ten yr period
The US has created just as much in a third of the time
Japan was able to avoid a depression
Will the US be able to avoid a depression?
Well we are doing all of the same things the Japanese did but only much faster. Japan was able to avoid a depression because of a trade surplus and very little foreign debt compared to the US. Because of the trade deficit, overall debt and monetary inflation in the US, there is no way in the hell the US can avoid the Greater Depression. As a matter of fact it has already started.
The world is full of stupid people and every time I hear someone says “go out and spend” to get us out of this, I add one more idiot to the list. You cannot create more debt to get out of debt, you do not create long term solutions by going into debt, now sir! You solve financial problems by saving and paying off those debts. Saving instills confidence in individuals and countries. Saving provides capital for innovations. Debt only encourages leveraging that transfers wealth from the poor and working class to the power class and it props up the fractional reserve banking system that facilitates this transfer of wealth from the working class and poor to the power class.
What will save us and avoid a crisis of this magnitude in the future is saving and a gold backed currency, without these, life will be a living hell for the foreseeable future.
In closing I will restate another forecast I made many times; Gold will hit 2K by the end of 2011. And to that I will add Oil will go to 100 dollars a barrel within 3 years.
No We Can't
Well the new mantra “Yes we can” has everyone believing. However, as kids almost everyone believed in Santa Clause and the tooth fairy, but, as time proved it was just a fallacy. So it is, this “yes we can” mantra will prove to be a fallacy.
The economy is not an electronic device, or a machine, that you can turn on or off with the flick of a switch, it is a dynamic instrument that will rebalance from time to time regardless of what the pundits preach or the devotes chant. In other words one cannot say “we will create 3 million jobs” and boom it happens, hell if that were the case then why not go for zero unemployment. The robbers at the top can run the printing presses overnight for as long as they want and create endless piles of money, however, fiat money does not equal jobs or something tangible. The running of the printing presses will cause massive inflation, perhaps hyperinflation and if that happens, then heaven help us all!
“Yes we can” create all the fiat money we want, but, "No we cannot" fix the economy of this fraud that has been perpetrated on the poor and working class people of the world. As I have said many; times what is unfolding right now is something no one alive has ever seen. The Greater Depression has started my friends and it does not matter what anyone says or does, the die is cast and suffer we will.
The economy is not an electronic device, or a machine, that you can turn on or off with the flick of a switch, it is a dynamic instrument that will rebalance from time to time regardless of what the pundits preach or the devotes chant. In other words one cannot say “we will create 3 million jobs” and boom it happens, hell if that were the case then why not go for zero unemployment. The robbers at the top can run the printing presses overnight for as long as they want and create endless piles of money, however, fiat money does not equal jobs or something tangible. The running of the printing presses will cause massive inflation, perhaps hyperinflation and if that happens, then heaven help us all!
“Yes we can” create all the fiat money we want, but, "No we cannot" fix the economy of this fraud that has been perpetrated on the poor and working class people of the world. As I have said many; times what is unfolding right now is something no one alive has ever seen. The Greater Depression has started my friends and it does not matter what anyone says or does, the die is cast and suffer we will.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Ten to 25 years before a turn around
The economic and financial crisis has been unfolding for over a year now and there are many opinions about when things will turn around. Some feel that it will turn around in 2H 09 or in 2010. I am not sure if this is their own opinion or what they read and hear in the mainstream media, however, be weary of the mainstream media.
Personally I think that this crisis will take anywhere from 10 to 25 years before we see any up trend. Now it depends on when people think the down turn started, if you figure it started in 2001 then best case for a turn around is 2011, if you think it started 2005 then best case 2015. However, it could drag on to 2026 to 2030.
If anyone thinks otherwise, then good luck! My advice to people would be to live way below your means, stay out of debt and if you have any income; save, save, save!
Currently real inflation is double digits, real unemployment is double digits and I expect at least 15% of established businesses – from small to large – to fail this year.
As an aside; In the last depression one of the biggest sellers was spam, guess what! Yes it is one of the biggest sellers again and the factory cannot keep up with demand.
spam in demand
Personally I think that this crisis will take anywhere from 10 to 25 years before we see any up trend. Now it depends on when people think the down turn started, if you figure it started in 2001 then best case for a turn around is 2011, if you think it started 2005 then best case 2015. However, it could drag on to 2026 to 2030.
If anyone thinks otherwise, then good luck! My advice to people would be to live way below your means, stay out of debt and if you have any income; save, save, save!
Currently real inflation is double digits, real unemployment is double digits and I expect at least 15% of established businesses – from small to large – to fail this year.
As an aside; In the last depression one of the biggest sellers was spam, guess what! Yes it is one of the biggest sellers again and the factory cannot keep up with demand.
spam in demand
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Capitalism is Dead in the USA
I hear many people speak of Capitalism and saying that capitalism in the USA is alive and well.
Well, have people stopped to think what Capitalism really is? I believe what we have in the USA is what many have already called “socialism for the rich”.
This is evident everywhere, bankers being bailed out at the expense of tax payers, White collar criminals stealing countless millions and even billions and doing a relatively small amount of soft time, etc. This is not Capitalism.
Capitalism is a system where there are checks and balances, a system where the government makes the guidelines fair and equal for all and not slanted to the side of the wealthy and powerful. It is a system where the financial markets are allowed to move up or down naturally without government interference, other than the guidelines already in place from the beginning. Any government bail outs amounts to Socialism. Capitalism is a system where market forces unfold without interference or manipulation from the government.
Many may say that if the government does not bail out the troubled sectors then it will be dooms day, well if the government was not interfering and manipulating to begin with we would have never been in this position.
Again, Capitalism is a system of checks and balances and market forces unfolding in an organic way. What we have in the USA today is not Capitalism. Capitalism contracted cancer in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and died in 1971 when the Gold backing for the dollar was removed.
The only honest checks and balance vehicle is gold and until we go back to an honest gold backing for all currencies then we will go through this situation again and again, the next time worse than the last.
The problem with the Gold Backing is that with it the Wealthy and powerful will no longer be able to rig the system by creating money out of nothing and using it to acquire real assets and also enslaving us by chronic debt. With gold backing we will be playing on a fairly even field but that is no good for the monsters that control our lives today.
If one were to go back and check the check the CPI from 1800 to 1913 you would see that it was basically a flat line from 1913 to 1971 there was a gradual rise, however, from 1971 to today the increase is basically a vertical line.
What we have in the US today is not what the founding fathers had in mind, it is NOT Capitalism. Citizens of the US must demand a rebirth of Capitalism by starting with a return to a gold backed currency.
Well, have people stopped to think what Capitalism really is? I believe what we have in the USA is what many have already called “socialism for the rich”.
This is evident everywhere, bankers being bailed out at the expense of tax payers, White collar criminals stealing countless millions and even billions and doing a relatively small amount of soft time, etc. This is not Capitalism.
Capitalism is a system where there are checks and balances, a system where the government makes the guidelines fair and equal for all and not slanted to the side of the wealthy and powerful. It is a system where the financial markets are allowed to move up or down naturally without government interference, other than the guidelines already in place from the beginning. Any government bail outs amounts to Socialism. Capitalism is a system where market forces unfold without interference or manipulation from the government.
Many may say that if the government does not bail out the troubled sectors then it will be dooms day, well if the government was not interfering and manipulating to begin with we would have never been in this position.
Again, Capitalism is a system of checks and balances and market forces unfolding in an organic way. What we have in the USA today is not Capitalism. Capitalism contracted cancer in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and died in 1971 when the Gold backing for the dollar was removed.
The only honest checks and balance vehicle is gold and until we go back to an honest gold backing for all currencies then we will go through this situation again and again, the next time worse than the last.
The problem with the Gold Backing is that with it the Wealthy and powerful will no longer be able to rig the system by creating money out of nothing and using it to acquire real assets and also enslaving us by chronic debt. With gold backing we will be playing on a fairly even field but that is no good for the monsters that control our lives today.
If one were to go back and check the check the CPI from 1800 to 1913 you would see that it was basically a flat line from 1913 to 1971 there was a gradual rise, however, from 1971 to today the increase is basically a vertical line.
What we have in the US today is not what the founding fathers had in mind, it is NOT Capitalism. Citizens of the US must demand a rebirth of Capitalism by starting with a return to a gold backed currency.
Massive inflation ahead
Many believe and have been taught by our educational institutions that inflation = increase in the price of goods, commodities and services. However, that is only the result of inflation and not inflation itself.
There is only one type of inflation; monetary inflation. Therefore, inflation is the increase in money supply and deflation is a decrease in the money supply.
As it stands right now, there is a massive increase in the money supply and, therefore, look out for massive inflation in the future. You will see this reflected in gold price.
As a matter of fact over the past 6 yrs gold has doubled in price and still has a long way to go.
I expect Gold to hit at least $2000.00 by the end of 2011
There is only one type of inflation; monetary inflation. Therefore, inflation is the increase in money supply and deflation is a decrease in the money supply.
As it stands right now, there is a massive increase in the money supply and, therefore, look out for massive inflation in the future. You will see this reflected in gold price.
As a matter of fact over the past 6 yrs gold has doubled in price and still has a long way to go.
I expect Gold to hit at least $2000.00 by the end of 2011
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Don’t do it
Becoming the government of Canada at this time is the worse thing that can happen for any political party.
The world is heading into a depression and Canada will not be spared. There is no one in Canada at this time who can avoid this. In the end the party in power when this unfolds will pay for years for the crisis. As a result; they will be kept out of government for a good three terms after that.
I am not sure if the Conservatives saw, or was told recently, that this was coming and decided to find a way out or is just getting lucky, but it would be the best thing for any party to not be in power at this time.
My advice to the opposition parties at this time would be – don’t do it.
The world is heading into a depression and Canada will not be spared. There is no one in Canada at this time who can avoid this. In the end the party in power when this unfolds will pay for years for the crisis. As a result; they will be kept out of government for a good three terms after that.
I am not sure if the Conservatives saw, or was told recently, that this was coming and decided to find a way out or is just getting lucky, but it would be the best thing for any party to not be in power at this time.
My advice to the opposition parties at this time would be – don’t do it.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Markets not for the weak hearted
The stock markets have been very erratic over the last year. Some have been advising individual investors that:
1) It is always best to stay invested
2) It is too late to get out
3) The markets have bottomed.
I do not subscribe to anyone of those statements. As a matter of fact the market has not bottomed as yet and I believe that it will bottom somewhere in between Dow 4200-7000. At that point I think if one gets in, they need to do so slowly and dollar cost average.
Based on my own charting there is at least a 70% chance that one will lose money in these markets if they are using the generic methods and advice.
These are not markets for the weak of heart and the inexperienced, it is best to hold your money than to invest with no idea. Do not get caught up in the hysteria dished out by some of the media networks; “these are the best values you will ever see” etc, they are talking out of their hats.
These are the same people who were telling people to invest in Real Estate when the bubble was bursting, these are the same people who were saying “the paradigm has shifted, this is a different time” and “stay invested in Tech” in 1999 when it was clear that the tech bubble was about to pop.
If one still wants to get into this market, then get in slowly and dollar cost average as I stated above. Be careful and trust no one with you money. Good luck.
1) It is always best to stay invested
2) It is too late to get out
3) The markets have bottomed.
I do not subscribe to anyone of those statements. As a matter of fact the market has not bottomed as yet and I believe that it will bottom somewhere in between Dow 4200-7000. At that point I think if one gets in, they need to do so slowly and dollar cost average.
Based on my own charting there is at least a 70% chance that one will lose money in these markets if they are using the generic methods and advice.
These are not markets for the weak of heart and the inexperienced, it is best to hold your money than to invest with no idea. Do not get caught up in the hysteria dished out by some of the media networks; “these are the best values you will ever see” etc, they are talking out of their hats.
These are the same people who were telling people to invest in Real Estate when the bubble was bursting, these are the same people who were saying “the paradigm has shifted, this is a different time” and “stay invested in Tech” in 1999 when it was clear that the tech bubble was about to pop.
If one still wants to get into this market, then get in slowly and dollar cost average as I stated above. Be careful and trust no one with you money. Good luck.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
A sad time for Blacks in America
Well the euphoria of the elections have come and gone and time for people to get back to reality or perish. I did call this victory since Jan 2008 on my blog: Scapegoat Obama
Anyway, many people seem to think that Barack Obama is the messiah, and things will change for the better, this is doubtful. It did not matter who was elected, the problems would still be the same and it will be a while before things turn around. How much worse it gets will depend on the direction this presidency takes.
Obama is a great politician and maybe be great initially for the poor but in the end all will suffer. Most of Obama’s experience has been in government and none in business, I mean even George W for all his failures did come in to the presidency with some business experience, even though his presidency was a colossal failure. No business experience will be bad for Obama.
In the presidency most of the big decisions are not decided on by the president anyway, however, power can be intoxicating especially when you have overwhelming support of the people. This I believe will make Obama’s failure worse – I believe that he was set up for failure anyway. And the power brokers will quietly sit back and let him fail. No one can get the US out of this mess created by the White power class of America.
With the huge support that Obama got, he and his administration will feel that they know what is right and they will do that. There will be bigger government, more bailouts, and tax cuts for the poor and working class and/or increased taxation for the wealthy. This will lead to the printing presses continuing to run overtime, this will lead to massive inflation and worse failure for his presidency.
Like it or not most of the taxes are paid by the wealthy, and trying to tax them even more, right now, may just drive them away to other countries, in a utopia that may be good but there is no such thing and never will be so cutting off one leg of a chair will lead to its total collapse.
The other alternative Obama has is to let these failed businesses and corporations collapse and let the market correct itself. This will lead to even more people losing jobs very quickly but the presidency will see this as bad for the next elections; the Wealthy make up only a small portion of the voting base anyway and as proved by Obama their contribution is not greatly needed if you have the masses on your side, so expect the former to be the hallmark of his presidency and not the latter.
Obama’s presidency will be a big failure but how badly it fails depends on the choices they make. I actually think that after all the celebrations, Obama’s election at this time is sad for Blacks and all other minorities in America. I wish him well and hope that by some miracle his presidency will be a great one or else we will all be affected by this economic crisis – no one will be spared. However, I do not believe in miracles, but I believe in reality and reality bites real bad sometimes, get ready for some blood.
Note: The reason I am saying that it is a sad time for Blacks; they will all be held culpable, by White America, for a disaster that neither they nor Obama are responsible for. Read my Scapegoat Obama for more detials.
Anyway, many people seem to think that Barack Obama is the messiah, and things will change for the better, this is doubtful. It did not matter who was elected, the problems would still be the same and it will be a while before things turn around. How much worse it gets will depend on the direction this presidency takes.
Obama is a great politician and maybe be great initially for the poor but in the end all will suffer. Most of Obama’s experience has been in government and none in business, I mean even George W for all his failures did come in to the presidency with some business experience, even though his presidency was a colossal failure. No business experience will be bad for Obama.
In the presidency most of the big decisions are not decided on by the president anyway, however, power can be intoxicating especially when you have overwhelming support of the people. This I believe will make Obama’s failure worse – I believe that he was set up for failure anyway. And the power brokers will quietly sit back and let him fail. No one can get the US out of this mess created by the White power class of America.
With the huge support that Obama got, he and his administration will feel that they know what is right and they will do that. There will be bigger government, more bailouts, and tax cuts for the poor and working class and/or increased taxation for the wealthy. This will lead to the printing presses continuing to run overtime, this will lead to massive inflation and worse failure for his presidency.
Like it or not most of the taxes are paid by the wealthy, and trying to tax them even more, right now, may just drive them away to other countries, in a utopia that may be good but there is no such thing and never will be so cutting off one leg of a chair will lead to its total collapse.
The other alternative Obama has is to let these failed businesses and corporations collapse and let the market correct itself. This will lead to even more people losing jobs very quickly but the presidency will see this as bad for the next elections; the Wealthy make up only a small portion of the voting base anyway and as proved by Obama their contribution is not greatly needed if you have the masses on your side, so expect the former to be the hallmark of his presidency and not the latter.
Obama’s presidency will be a big failure but how badly it fails depends on the choices they make. I actually think that after all the celebrations, Obama’s election at this time is sad for Blacks and all other minorities in America. I wish him well and hope that by some miracle his presidency will be a great one or else we will all be affected by this economic crisis – no one will be spared. However, I do not believe in miracles, but I believe in reality and reality bites real bad sometimes, get ready for some blood.
Note: The reason I am saying that it is a sad time for Blacks; they will all be held culpable, by White America, for a disaster that neither they nor Obama are responsible for. Read my Scapegoat Obama for more detials.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
What’s Next
The US government needs money and one of the things they are looking at is taking money from your IRA and 401K.
There is a very real possibility that they will make it law that 5% of your retirement money will have to go towards purchasing government bonds or else you will have to cash out your retirement accounts and fulfill the tax obligations. The government will pay 3% interest on these bonds.
Stay tuned.
There is a very real possibility that they will make it law that 5% of your retirement money will have to go towards purchasing government bonds or else you will have to cash out your retirement accounts and fulfill the tax obligations. The government will pay 3% interest on these bonds.
Stay tuned.
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