Monday, October 13, 2008

Darker clouds ahead

I generally take a dark view of the current global financial situation based on the facts at hand. However, after thinking about the financial crisis we are in, even I was not ready for the cold dark reality of what could possibly unfold before it is all said and done.

Many, who know me, say that I am too pessimistic and doom and gloom, some even thought I was nuts. Earlier this week a colleague of mine said:
“You know, when I met you one and a half year ago I thought you were nuts, but, now I know you were ahead of the crowd”.

What he was referring to was my view, since back then; that the financial system will collapse. As you can see my blog is filled with the essays I have written about the crisis even before it became one. Well last night, after looking at some additional data, the cold dark reality hit home for me even harder; things may get much worse than even I, “Mr Darkness”, thought possible.


I expect:
The financial system to almost totally collapse, this is already happening.
Many more banks to fail
Some industries to grind to a halt
Massive unemployment
Wide spread poverty
Food shortages
Governments to basically go bankrupt and services to be at a minimum at best
Utility companies will not be able to reliably deliver products and services
Blackouts and brown outs
Massive Riots
Martial law declared in many cities

This could all unfold within the next 5 to 7 years. Many of these problems will result from the global real estate bubble, estimated at $30 Trillion, collapsing. I thought that was the biggest problem however, the derivatives market is even bigger, estimated to be about $54 trillion, when this starts unraveling in a big way then the dark clouds will really descend upon us.

There is, however, one saving grace and that is the compassion of the wealthy and ruling class, if they are willing to give up 25% of their wealth for the benefit of the poor and working class then the impact will not be as bad. The ball is in their court; let us see if they are human after all.

1 comment:

  1. Wow, martial law taking effect would be scary and America would be paced back 10 years of development... hopefully there may be some initiatives that can lighten up the situation.

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