Friday, November 21, 2008

Markets not for the weak hearted

The stock markets have been very erratic over the last year. Some have been advising individual investors that:
1) It is always best to stay invested
2) It is too late to get out
3) The markets have bottomed.

I do not subscribe to anyone of those statements. As a matter of fact the market has not bottomed as yet and I believe that it will bottom somewhere in between Dow 4200-7000. At that point I think if one gets in, they need to do so slowly and dollar cost average.

Based on my own charting there is at least a 70% chance that one will lose money in these markets if they are using the generic methods and advice.

These are not markets for the weak of heart and the inexperienced, it is best to hold your money than to invest with no idea. Do not get caught up in the hysteria dished out by some of the media networks; “these are the best values you will ever see” etc, they are talking out of their hats.

These are the same people who were telling people to invest in Real Estate when the bubble was bursting, these are the same people who were saying “the paradigm has shifted, this is a different time” and “stay invested in Tech” in 1999 when it was clear that the tech bubble was about to pop.

If one still wants to get into this market, then get in slowly and dollar cost average as I stated above. Be careful and trust no one with you money. Good luck.

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